It has been a long-time coming, but autonomous – and intelligent – driving is now just around the corner. This has raised many questions, not only by manufacturers, but also by doctors, scientists, economists, insurance companies and, of course, regulators. Yes, it will redefine the automotive industry… among others. Let’s d(r)ive into it.
At the end of March, the development of autonomous driving in Europe took a big step forward when the UNECE (United Nations Economic Commission for Europe) amended the 1968 Vienna Convention on Road Traffic. As of now, automated driving technologies transferring driving tasks to the vehicle are allowed in traffic, provided the driver can at any time take control of the vehicle. Furthermore, the technologies used need to conform with the United Nations vehicle regulations. So far, so good.
Manufacturers and insurance companies in the driving seat
Human errors are the main reason for road traffic accidents and almost rise to 90%. In this respect, Swedish manufacturer Volvo set the almost impossible objective of attaining a zero accident caused by Humans rate by 2020. Numbers are scary: 25,900 fatalities were recorded in Europe from a car accident in 2014. With its IntelliSafe program, the brand aims to «redefine safety»; meanwhile Google has already began testing its vehicles in California, since legislation is different in every state in the US, and one of its cars caused an accident, by colliding into an on-coming bus.
Of course, negotiations with insurance companies are already under way. In the UK, AXA «understands that the integration of autonomous vehicles has the potential to disrupt and fundamentally alter the current motor insurance model, and also transform society for the better». Are legal responsibilities going to be transferred to manufacturers instead of drivers when accidents occur? Therefore makes it sense that insurance companies will need to homologate the software used by manufacturers.
In the face of this new automobile landscape, OEMs (Original Equipment Manufacturer) are already working with insurance companies and some are even creating their own insurance solutions, somewhat increasing, the extent of what is currently known as the manufacturer’s warranty… a brand new disruptive business model for car manufacturers is on its way. What will also happen is the redefinition of insurance companies’ the business models, which will have to shift from millions of private consumers to OEMs and infrastructure operators.
According to a KPMG study, change will be incremental; consisting of different phases, from «conceptual design», to «core strategies and initial lawsuits», «diversity of opinion, cases and appeals» and finally «tort law clarified». We will then be in 2040… Thereis a long road ahead, but the accident frequency could drop by 80%. Sure, it will never completely disappear: weather and road conditions and, of course, technology problems cannot be avoided.
The fate of taxi drivers and private hire vehicles in the hands of car manufacturers and startups
Given taxi drivers’ the reputation continues to diminish in big cities around the world, the arrival of intelligent cars could redefine the entire industry. Reserving a cab through your mobile phone is now a daily commodity, but getting into a driver-less cab, that is the big evolution!
In early January, General Motors announced during the CES 2016 that they were collaborating with Lyft, a company founded in 2012 that aims to reconnect people and communities through better transportation. GM President Dan Ammann added: «we see the future of personal mobility as connected, seamless and autonomous». The American manufacturer invested $500 million in Uber competitor, Lyft. At the end of March, NuTonomy, MIT spin-off, introduced its driverless taxis in Singapore, with the help of the local government. The reaction of both the users and taxi drivers remains unknown…
Speaking of today’s taxi-drivers’ main competitor, Uber just announced the pre-order of 100,000 intelligent cars from Stuttgart manufacturer Mercedes-Benz. This long-term commercial deal worth $10 billion raises one question: what will happen to the current drivers? Uber built its empire – which is now valued at almost 70 billion dollars – on cooperation, meaning independent drivers, actual human beings are the heart and soul of the American company. Well, they used to be.
As a matter of fact, Uber, just like Google and its Chinese competitor Baidu, have been developing autonomous driving for months, even years, but the uberization of Uber is a big step. A step the Uber drivers probably didn’t see coming, and since almost 10% of the drivers live – and work – only through Uber, their reaction will be heard. Its workforce might therefore completely disappear.
The need to increase cybersecurity and for new experts Last summer, two researchers from the US made the headlines when the website Wired published a video of two researchers remotely hacking and driving a Jeep Cherokee on the highway. As cars are becoming more and more connected, it is only logical that the cybersecurity risk is increasing. And motives for hackers are abundant: access to online automotive apps and services that contain banking and credit records, lifestyle information, medical records, vehicle location information, but also industrial espionage, sabotage and vehicle identification re-assignment in case of a stolen car.
In Luxembourg, Raphaël Frank and his team at the SnT (Interdisciplinary Centre for Security, Reliability and Trust) of the University of Luxembourg have been working on the same problematics and were able to hack several cars and control them from distance. Good news for Chief Information Officers, who are by the way now called Chief Information Security Officers!
Radar traps, road construction and alcohol consumption Not only does autonomous driving mean less accidents, it also means no more speeding. What’s the use of radar traps then? Since governments feed on them, other taxes may be increased… A shame, especially in Luxembourg where radar traps just arrived in March after a lengthy debate. Therefore will governments be willing to help with the development of autonomous driving? Maybe not.
Special lanes may be necessary to avoid autonomous cars and regular ones colliding. In this respect, the road industry might get a piece of the cake. On the other hand, drivers will suffer from months of roadworks, which may cause an increase in traffic in big cities and especially in Luxembourg.
And last but not least (we’re talking here about a nonexhaustive list), what about alcohol consumption? Will autonomous car passenger have to be sober? For now, given the driver will still be required to take control of his/her car, yes, obviously! If we look forward, 2040 may see a strong increase in the consumption of alcohol. There for on one hands this would be safer, however many people could be susceptible to addiction and alcohol-related diseases.
Once just a fantasy, the road to autonomous driving is already affecting many industries all over the world, but also the behavior of the «former» drivers. Where the origins can be dated back to the myth of the flying carpet, and much later, to the 1950s ad called Driverless Car of the Future for «America’s Electric Light and Power Companies», autonomous driving has now truly become a reality. From the streets of San Francisco to test-runs on campuses in the US, intelligent cars will soon hit the streets of Luxembourg.
Be ready for change, be ready for disruption!